Despite predictions hurricane season quiet so far

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — It’s been quiet — too quiet — this Atlantic hurricane season, meteorologists and residents of storm-prone areas whisper almost as if not to tempt fate.

A record-tying inactive September is here and no storms have formed, even though it is peak hurricane season and all experts’ pre-season forecasts warned of an above normal season. Nearly all the factors that meteorologists look for in a busy season are there.

Warm ocean water for fuel? Check.

Not a lot of wind shear that decapitates storms? Check.

La Nina, the natural cooling of the central Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide and increases Atlantic storm activity? Check.

Yet zero storms formed until yesterday when Hurricane Danielle formed in the North Atlantic ocean and poses no threat to any land area. Surprised experts point to unusual persistent dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert over the eastern Atlantic which inhibits storm development. But each time they and computer simulations think something is brewing, nothing comes of it.

“It has been surprisingly and freakishly quiet in the Atlantic,” University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy said, pointing out that weak Tropical Storm Colin fizzled out on July 2 and nothing formed until Friday.

It’ll be the first time since 1941 that the Atlantic has gone from July 3 to the end of August with no named storm, Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said. Since 1950, only 1997 and 1961 had no named storms in August and 1961 then went hyperactive in September, including deadly Carla, he said.

As we enter September, it appears that the Atlantic may become more active.  The bad news is that the National Hurricane Center is watching three areas of interest.  One has a 70% chance of developing.  The good news that neither of the three areas is predicted to threaten the east coast.  One is expected to be well off shore and could threaten Bermuda. It  could cause rip currents on the ocean beaches of the Eastern Shore.

Although rain from a tropical system would be welcome, as of now there is nothing on the horizon for the East Coast or the Gulf Coast.

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