State revenues in line with forecast at fiscal half way point

January 17, 2024

RICHMOND, VA – Governor Glenn Youngkin  announced that general fund revenues for December 2023 remain in line with updated revisions to the official revenue forecast. Total general fund revenues grew by 0.2 percent for the month versus the same period last year and are up 7.1 percent year-to-date.

“Through the first half of the fiscal year, our forecast continues to correctly reflect the economic risks and uncertainty on the horizon,” said Governor Glenn Youngkin. “As we laid out in our Unleashing Opportunity budget, lowering the cost of living for all Virginians and empowering an economic environment for our companies to compete and win to drive job growth across the Commonwealth remains a top priority.”

“Revenue collections are slightly ahead of plan through the first half of the fiscal year,” said Secretary of Finance Stephen Cummings. “December fiscal year-to-date, general fund revenues are ahead of the revised forecast by $363 million, but given broad economic risks and uncertainty around refunds and nonwitholding collections, a cautious outlook is warranted.”

Among the major revenue sources, payroll withholding taxes were 3.8 percent higher for the month on an unadjusted basis, compared to last year, and up 2.1 percent year-to-date through December. Sales tax collections are 1.3 percent lower year-to-date, and corporate income tax revenues are up 14.8 percent year-to-date versus last year.

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In comparison to the revenue forecast assumed in the Governor’s amendments to the Fiscal Year 2024 budget and accounting for monthly variations in tax collections, year-to-date total general fund revenues are ahead of projections by $363.2 million. Excluding nonwithholding and refunds, which continue to be distorted due to the recently enacted Pass-Through Entity Tax, collections are ahead of the forecast by $85.8 million.

The full December 2023 revenue report is available here.

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