Tropical Storm Erin poised to become season’s first major hurricane

Meteorologists are predicting that Tropical Storm Erin, currently in the South Atlantic, could strengthen into the season’s first full hurricane — potentially reaching Category 3 status later this week.

Erin’s exact path remains uncertain, but early forecasts suggest it may pass off the U.S. East Coast before curving back out to sea. Even if this track holds, coastal communities should expect heavy surf and dangerous rip currents.

On the Eastern Shore, hurricanes often bring two main types of flooding: tidal flooding from storm surge and freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall. The severity depends on several factors, including the storm’s path, timing with the tide, and rainfall across the region.

The worst tidal flooding on the bayside typically occurs when the storm’s eye passes to the east. After the eye moves by, strong westerly or southwesterly winds can push Chesapeake Bay water into local creeks, inundating low-lying areas. Flooding risk increases if heavy rains fall on the western shore, sending more water into the bay via the Potomac, Rappahannock, and York rivers — especially if this coincides with high tide.

In Accomack County, vulnerable areas include Tangier, the Saxis–Sanford area, Deep Creek, Chesconessex, East Point, Harborton, and homes along bayside creeks. In Northampton County, at-risk locations include waterfront homes along local creeks, Bayford, and parts of Cape Charles.

Homes built after Hurricane Donna in 1960 are generally elevated and less likely to flood. Older homes built on slabs or low to the ground may see floodwaters enter the living space.

On the seaside, flooding is most severe when strong easterly winds drive water inland. Particularly vulnerable spots include Oyster, Willis Wharf, Wachapreague, Chincoteague, Greenbackville, and seaside creek communities. When a storm’s eye passes to the west, salt spray from intense easterly winds can burn foliage on the eastern sides of trees. Though this damage is usually temporary, the browned leaves can take time to regrow.

Tomorrow’s update will focus on the key factors residents should consider when deciding whether to evacuate ahead of a storm.