NOAA predicts 85% chance of active hurricane season

May 28, 2024
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and is predicting an above-average number of storms.

According to NOAA, there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA predicts 17 to 25 named storms out of which 4 to 7 are predicted to be major hurricanes. The average season, in comparison, normally sees 14 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. Forecasters say they have a 70% confidence in these above-average ranges.

“Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” said NOAA Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad.

NOAA attributes the more active hurricane season to a variety of factors, including near-record warm sea temperatures in the Atlantic, developing La Nina conditions in the Pacific, lighter Atlantic trade winds. Together, these factors tend to favor tropical storm formation, according to NOAA.

“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”

Governor Youngkin has urged Virginians to be prepared before a hurricane threatens our area.

The Hurricane Season begins officially on June 1.  The Hurricane Survivor’s Guide, sponsored by A&N Electric Co-op and available on, is a comprehensive guide to all local matters involving hurricane preparation and recovery.  A paper version of the Hurricane Survival Guide will soon be available at many local businesses.  Now is the time to make a plan in the event a hurricane threatens the Eastern Shore.  The Hurricane Survival Guide will help you decide if you need to evacuate, where to go, how to prepare for the storm and what to do in the aftermath.

Coldwell Banker Harbour Realty

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