National Weather Service: prolonged tidal flooding was defining impact of September nor’easter

Pictured: Chincoteague High School on Saturday, September 26, 2026.

A late-September nor’easter brought several days of unusually high water to the Eastern Shore of Virginia, with the National Weather Service saying the most significant part of the event was not heavy rain or widespread wind damage, but the duration of moderate to major tidal flooding.

The event developed after a cold front crossed the region Monday, Sept. 21. By the night of Sept. 22 and into Sept. 23, northeast winds began increasing as very strong high pressure built over eastern Canada and weak low pressure strengthened off the Carolina coast.

The Weather Service said frequent wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots were observed over the marine area Sept. 23, with gale-force northeast gusts continuing Sept. 24.

That prolonged northeast flow allowed seas to build dramatically. By Thursday, Sept. 24, nearshore seas had reached roughly 10 to 17 feet.

As the water piled up along the coast and inside the Chesapeake Bay, water levels rose to about 2.5 to 3.5 feet above normal astronomical tides by Wednesday and Thursday. The highest early anomalies were observed along portions of coastal southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina, the lower and middle Chesapeake Bay and the tidal James River.

For the Eastern Shore, the combination of strong onshore winds, elevated seas and successive high tides produced repeated rounds of flooding in low-lying communities and along vulnerable roads.

Water levels eased somewhat Friday as winds shifted more northerly, but conditions worsened again Friday night into Saturday as the offshore low rapidly deepened near the Virginia and Maryland coast and developed into a stronger nor’easter.

The tightening pressure gradient behind the storm produced storm-force north-northwest gusts over the coastal waters north of Chincoteague. The Weather Service estimated seas around 20 feet offshore, with occasional waves potentially reaching significantly higher.

Despite the wind becoming more north-northwesterly, the large seas kept water levels elevated across the region. In many locations, peak water levels occurred during the Saturday morning high tide.

The Weather Service said one of the most notable aspects of the storm was just how long the flooding lasted. Several locations experienced eight to 10 consecutive tide cycles of moderate to major flooding.

That prolonged flooding repeatedly affected low-lying portions of the Eastern Shore, including areas around Chincoteague, where high water ultimately forced the Causeway to close several times.

While the coastal flooding was widespread and persistent, the Weather Service said wind impacts over land were largely confined to the immediate coast and were not considered unusual for a storm of this type.

The storm also did not produce widespread heavy rainfall. Only one inch was measured in various places throughout the Shore Saturday evening into Sunday.

Instead, the nor’easter was defined by a long period of strong onshore flow, very rough seas and repeated high tides that kept water levels elevated for days.

For Virginia’s Eastern Shore, the storm served as a clear example of how a coastal system does not need to produce exceptional rainfall or widespread wind damage to create major problems. In this case, the biggest impact came from water that had nowhere to go for tide cycle after tide cycle.