More tropical storms and hurricanes very likely

Nine named storms have already formed in the Atlantic in 2020, and that number could double or even triple by the end of the season.

NOAA’s recently updated forecast for the 2020 hurricane season predicts 19 to 25 named storms (including the nine that already formed earlier this year).

NOAA is expecting 7 to 11 hurricanes and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. NOAA points to warmer than average water temperatures in the Atlantic, less vertical wind shear than usual, weak tropical Atlantic trade winds, and a more active west African monsoon for the increase in expected storms.

Colorado State University also released an updated forecast for 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, which is an even higher number of storms than NOAA is expecting.

The one big caveat with these forecasts is that it’s impossible to know at this point how many of those storms will make landfall. But the extremely active forecast increases the odds that at least a few storms will make landfall in the U.S.

The Colorado State University forecast has a 49% chance for a major hurricane making landfall along the east coast of the U.S. (including Florida), which is higher than the chance in an average year, which is 31%.

As of the writing of this article on August 10, we’re in a brief lull in tropical storm/hurricane activity in the wake of Isaias.

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