NOAA predicts below average hurricane season for Atlantic seaboard

NOAA is forecasting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, but officials are emphasizing that residents along Virginia’s Eastern Shore should still prepare early because it only takes one storm to have a major local impact.

The outlook, released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicts an estimated 8 to 14 named storms during the June 1 through November 30 hurricane season. Of those storms, forecasters expect 3 to 6 hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA says there is a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of an above-normal season.

For residents of the Eastern Shore, where communities are vulnerable to storm surge, flooding, high winds and coastal erosion, emergency officials say the forecast should not lead to complacency.

NOAA officials noted that El Niño conditions are expected to develop during the season, which typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. However, slightly warmer-than-normal Atlantic waters and weaker trade winds could still allow dangerous storms to form.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in the report. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

The Eastern Shore has experienced the effects of tropical systems in recent years, including flooding along low-lying coastal areas, impacts to agriculture and aquaculture, and transportation disruptions along U.S. Route 13 and the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel corridor.

NOAA stressed that the seasonal outlook does not predict where storms will make landfall, meaning coastal Virginia could still be impacted even during a quieter season overall.

The agency also announced several new technologies and forecasting tools aimed at improving hurricane prediction and public safety this year. Those include expanded flood inundation mapping, improved hurricane forecast cone graphics that now include inland tropical storm and hurricane alerts, and the integration of data from small uncrewed aircraft systems into hurricane forecast models.

NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction said its high-resolution Flood Inundation Mapping services now cover about 60% of the U.S. population and are expected to expand to nearly full national coverage by late September. The mapping tools are designed to help emergency managers visualize which streets and neighborhoods are likely to flood during major storm events.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1. NOAA said an updated seasonal outlook will be released in early August ahead of the historical peak of hurricane season, which typically occurs from mid-September through October.